In the new trading week, attention is likely to focus in particular on the US labor market report. In addition to the Fed minutes from the most recent central bank meeting, a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell could attract investor interest.
Investors should also keep the developments regarding the French elections in mind.
ISM data and Powell speech in focus in the first half of the week
From the perspective of the economic data calendar, the new ISM index figures for the manufacturing sector are likely to be exciting (16:00). Economists expect a moderate increase of 0.3 points to 49 points.
As in the past trading week, speeches by various Fed representatives could provide impetus from time to time.
The rhetoric from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be scrutinized in the usual way for monetary policy clues on Tuesday from 3:30 pm.
ADP data provide first taste of non-farm payrolls - FOMC minutes could provide monetary policy clues
In the middle of the week, John Williams from the New York Fed (13:00) will have his say.
The so-called ADP data usually gives a first taste of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs). A job increase of 170,000 units is expected for the month of June, after 152,000 jobs in May.
The counterpart of the ISM index for the services sector may have lost momentum in June (53.8 vs. 52.5 points).
However, investors should tend to welcome any manageable signs of weakness in economic development, so that they can continue to find a breeding ground in the existing interest rate cut fantasies.
The publication of the FOMC minutes at 20:00 should be followed with interest. Investors are hoping for new clues about the future shape of US monetary policy.
US labor market could weaken significantly - investors hope for a cooling of the job market
While there is less relevant data on Thursday, attention is likely to focus all the more on Friday. The stock exchanges will be closed on Wall Street for the Independence Day holiday.
As on Wednesday, the first thing to keep an eye on from 11:40 a.m. is a speech by John Williams.
The official US labor market report (14:30) could possibly decide the weal and woe. Experts expect an increase of just 180,000 jobs for June, following 272,000 new jobs in the previous month. Consequently, the unemployment rate is likely to remain at 4.0%, unchanged from May.
Average wage growth could also slow compared to the previous month (0.4% vs. 0.3%).
Early parliamentary elections: France has voted in the first round
The French election could also be of interest, as it is likely to have a significant influence on the future shape of the European Union (EU). On Sunday, the French were called to vote in the first round of the early parliamentary elections. The decisive round of voting will follow next Sunday (07.07.2024).
Developments in the US election campaign between Joe Biden and Donald Trump are also likely to continue to create tension. After last week's TV duel, there was even talk of incumbent President Joe Biden dropping out of the current election campaign.
