In the new trading week, investors are likely to focus in particular on the Fed meeting in the middle of the week. The US labor market report will also be scrutinized in the usual way for monetary policy clues. It is also important to keep an eye on the ongoing reporting season.
The economic data calendar is not likely to get exciting again until Tuesday. At 16:00, consumer confidence from the Conference Board is on the agenda, which could deteriorate slightly.
Important China data will be published in the night from Tuesday to Wednesday. The PMI data for the manufacturing sector could be slightly gloomier for the month of July (49.5 points vs. 49.3 points).
ADP data give a foretaste of NFPs - Powell rhetoric in view
A first taste of the official US labor market report, which will be published next Friday, is usually provided by data from the service provider Automatic Data Processing (ADP). In this case, non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 166,000 units after 150,000 new jobs in the previous month.
The highlight of the week is likely to be the US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, which will announce its interest rate decision at 20:00 late on Wednesday evening. However, investors are not expecting any change to the current level of 5.25-5.50 percent. The markets are not expecting the long-awaited turnaround in interest rates until September.
The Fed press conference with Jerome Powell will be in focus from 20:30. Investors are likely to weigh the rhetoric on the gold scales.
On Thursday, the first trading day of the new month of August, the focus will be on the publication of new ISM data for the manufacturing sector. If economists have their way, the widely followed index is likely to have risen by 0.3 points compared to the previous month to 48.8 units.
US labor market could deteriorate - Further stock market heavyweights present their figures
The official US jobs report predicts an increase in jobs of 185,000 units, after 206,000 units in June. The unemployment rate could therefore remain at 4.10%.
Poor jobs data should tend to be welcomed by investors, as the Fed would then have fewer powerful arguments in its hands to keep key interest rates high for longer. With its restrictive monetary policy, the US monetary authority is trying to get inflation under control without stalling the economic engine.
Stimuli are once again lurking in the reporting season. On Tuesday, the focus is likely to be on Microsoft's figures and on Wednesday on Alphabet's. Amazon, Apple and Coinbase will report on Thursday.
