In the new trading week, investors are likely to be particularly interested in the Fed meeting. The seemingly never-ending trade dispute between the US and major economies should continue to keep Wall Street in its grip. In the reporting season, latecomers from the second and third tiers present their figures.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Source: TradingView
Focus on customs dispute - further escalation possible
The dynamic developments in the ongoing tariff dispute are likely to continue to occupy market participants. Donald Trump recently threatened the EU with a tariff of 200% on champagne and wine, among other things, further escalating the already escalated trade dispute. Last week, US tariffs on steel and aluminum came into force. The EU Commission intends to respond with countermeasures in two stages, but hopes to reach an agreement with the USA, it was reported.
Focus on China data and US economic data in the first half of the week
Even if the economic calendar in the coming days is relatively manageable overall, there could always be important stimuli.
At the start of the week, the first thing to keep an eye on is economic data from China (03:00). Fresh data on industrial production for the largest economy could provide important guidance for US trading.
In the afternoon, the focus will shift to retail sales in the United States (13:30).
On Tuesday, new data on the development of US industrial production could be moving (14:15).
Fed interest rate decision as weekly highlight - further interest rate pause conceivable
In the middle of the week, attention should focus on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision and the subsequent FOMC press conference with Jerome Powell. While the interest rate decision is scheduled for 19:00, the focus will shift to the speech by the head of the central bank from 19:30.
If the CME Group's "Fed Watch Tool" is anything to go by, the Fed is likely to keep its feet still when it comes to changing interest rates. There is only a 2% probability that interest rates will be cut by a quarter of a percentage point. The interest rate band currently stands at 4.25 to 4.50 percent.
It is usually important to keep an eye on the weekly initial claims for US unemployment benefits on Thursday (13:30).
A speech by Fed representative John Williams of the New York Fed could attract interest on Friday at the end of the week at 2:05 pm.
In the current reporting season, latecomers from the second and third tiers continue to present their figures. Nike (ISIN: US6541061031) will report on Thursday and NIO (ISIN: US62914V1061) on Friday.
