Following the publication of new US labor market data last week, the focus in the coming trading days is likely to be on fresh US consumer prices in particular. There is also a wealth of Chinese economic data to keep an eye on. The start of the US reporting season should also provide additional impetus. Last but not least, the official inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump could continue to cast its shadow.
US labor market data significantly stronger than expected - interest rate cut fantasies dim
The results of last Friday's official US labor market report are also likely to be a talking point at the start of the week. A total of 256,000 new non-farm jobs were created, significantly more than expected (160,000) after a revised 212,000 units in the previous month. In this context, the unemployment rate also fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%.
The signals of strength from the job market are likely to have tended to dampen expectations of interest rate cuts.
Chinese economic data should provide important guidance at the start of the week
Chinese economic data is also likely to provide important guidance on Monday. New export and import figures for the world's second-largest economy will be published.
US producer and consumer prices could provide monetary policy stimulus
With producer prices (excluding energy and food), important inflation data will first come into focus on Tuesday (14:30). Compared to the previous month, an increase of 0.3% is expected, after 0.4% in November.
Investors are likely to be eagerly awaiting the publication of new US consumer price data in the middle of the week (2:30 pm). According to economists, inflation including the drivers energy and food could have amounted to 2.8% in December (year-on-year), 0.1 percentage points higher than in November. The core rate of inflation is expected to be 3.3%.
Focus on US retail sales and China data in the second half of the week
On Thursday, retail sales are likely to provide impetus (14:30), which according to estimates could lose positive momentum.
As at the beginning of the week, Chinese economic data will once again come into focus at the end of the week (03:00). Retail sales, gross domestic product and new data on industrial production will be published.
Focus on major US banks - numerous impulses possible from the start of the reporting season
Traditionally, the major US banks kick off the reporting season in the United States. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and the Bank of New York Mellon are scheduled to publish their Q4 figures on Wednesday. Asset manager BlackRock will also publish its figures.
On Thursday, investors should keep an eye on the financial results of UnitedHealth, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and US Bancorp for the past quarter.
