For US investors, the new trading week is likely to be particularly exciting with the publication of new US labor market data. The trade disputes between the US and the eurozone, for example, which have recently gained momentum, should also continue to be monitored. In the current reporting season, only latecomers are presenting their figures for the past quarter. The key interest rate decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) is also likely to attract interest.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Source: TradingView
Tariff issue likely to keep investors on edge - escalation of trade dispute possible
The latest announcements of tariffs on US imports from various countries are likely to continue to provide plenty to talk about on the stock markets. Trump recently announced that he would increase the punitive tariffs on Chinese imports by a further ten percent, meaning that from March 4, 20 percent will be due on goods from China to the US, according to reports.
In addition, tariffs of 25 percent were recently announced on imports from the European Union to the USA. Cars and other goods are affected, it was reported. In this context, investors could also fear countermeasures by the affected economies, which could increase the risks of an escalation of the trade conflict.
China data could provide important guidance - US economic and ADP data in focus
In the night from Sunday to Monday, investors should first look out for important China data. The so-called Caixin PMI index for China's manufacturing sector is expected at 02:45.
In the afternoon, the focus will shift to figures for the ISM index in the USA, also for the manufacturing sector.
In the middle of the week, the ADP employment data (14:15) should provide a first foretaste of the so-called Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs), which are usually published on the first Friday of the new month.
Economists expect the ADP report to show an increase of 140,000 units, following 183,000 new jobs in the previous month.
The counterpart to the ISM index for the non-manufacturing sector will be published at 16:00.
ECB meeting could attract interest - Fed does not meet until March 19 as scheduled
Even though the US Federal Reserve (Fed) does not meet until March 19 to decide on the future of monetary policy, the planned key interest rate decision by its European colleagues on Thursday could be interesting (14:15). The subsequent press conference with President Christine Lagarde is also worth paying attention to (14:45).
US labor market could lose momentum compared to previous month - economists expect unemployment rate to remain at 4.0 percent
On Friday, investors will consequently turn their attention to the official US labor market report (14:30). According to current estimates, 133,000 new non-farm jobs may have been created in the world's largest economy, slightly fewer than in the previous month (143,000). Consequently, the unemployment rate is likely to remain at 4 percent.
On Friday evening (18:30), a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will bring the trading week to a close.
In the reporting season, market players will focus on the figures from NIO and CrowdStrike Holding on Tuesday. Zscaler will report on Wednesday and Hewlett Packard Enterprise, for example, on Thursday.
