Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely to impact global financial markets at the start of the week. After a brief period of relief on Friday, growing doubts about a swift diplomatic solution to the Iran conflict could dominate. Repeated disruptions along one of the most important energy trade routes underscore the fragility of the situation and dampen hopes for a timely, viable peace agreement between the conflicting parties. The recurring cycle of opening up and escalation is taking on the characteristics of a geopolitical power struggle.
Investors could be distracted from the Iran conflict by the accelerating earnings season.
Middle East conflict: Geopolitical tensions gain momentum – Strait of Hormuz blocked again
„The armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran will soon strike back and take retaliatory measures against this act of armed piracy and against the American army,“ the spokesman for the Iranian General Staff said on Monday via Telegram. He also accused the US of violating the ceasefire, which was actually in effect until the middle of the week.
US President Donald Trump had written on Sunday via „Truth Social“ that the US Navy had fired on the cargo ship „Touska“ and brought the ship under its own control. The ship in question sails under the Iranian flag and is subject to US sanctions, it was stated.
Last Friday, Iran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, only to reverse it promptly on Saturday. Tehran cited the repeated U.S. blockage of Iranian ports as the reason.
US Retail Sales and Purchasing Managers in Focus
Investors' focus on Tuesday is particularly on the US retail sales data (2:30 PM).
On Thursday, keep an eye on Purchasing Managers„ (S&P Global) for manufacturing, services, and “headline." Weekly initial jobless claims in the US should also be noted.
The planned Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday, April 29, 2026, could also cast its shadow. A speech by Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday (8:30 PM) will be in focus, which should be scrutinized for monetary policy clues.
Nonetheless, investors are still not expecting an interest rate cut at the end of April. According to the CME Group's „FedWatch Tool,“ 99.5 percent of market participants expect interest rates to remain unchanged.
US Earnings Season Picks Up Steam - Tesla, Intel, and Co. Lead the Way
The ongoing US earnings season is also something to keep an eye on. On Tuesday, for example, UnitedHealth Group (ISIN: US91324P1021) will report, followed by Boeing (US0970231058), IBM (ISIN: US4592001014), and Tesla (ISIN: US88160R1014) on their results for the past business quarter. On Thursday, the figures from Intel (US4581401001) and American Express (US0258161092) will be in focus, and on Friday, Procter & Gamble (US7427181091).
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Oil price (West Texas Intermediate)
