In addition to monetary policy developments, the past few trading days have continued to be dominated by the customs issue in the USA. The upcoming Bundestag elections next Sunday are also likely to have cast their shadow in Germany. Meanwhile, the business figures of the retailer Walmart caused quite a stir.
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Concerns about tariff dispute recede somewhat despite new announcements
The fear of the unforeseeable effects of the tariff dispute in the US with key trading partners has receded somewhat into the background, but is likely to remain a classic sword of Damocles hanging over investors' heads. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump announced punitive tariffs of around 25 percent on car imports into the United States. Trump intends to make a concrete statement on this on April 2. Tariffs would not be imposed as long as companies produce in the USA, it was said.
Bundestag election at a glance: CDU/CSU still in the lead - ZEW Index shows strongest increase in two years
In a generally manageable trading week from the perspective of the economic data calendar, the stock exchange doors on Wall Street remained closed at the beginning of the week due to George Washington's birthday.
Overall, investors are likely to have racked their brains over the Bundestag elections taking place on Sunday. The ZDF political barometer on February 20, 2025 showed 28% for the CDU/CSU, followed by the AfD (21%) and SPD (16%). The Greens came in at 14%, the Left at 8% and the FDP and BSW at 4.5%.
However, the ZEW index in February was significantly better than expected at 15.7 points to 26 points, which is also the strongest increase in two years. "Hopes for a new German government capable of taking action are likely to have been responsible for the increased optimism," the institute said.
Fed representative Waller sees little influence on price development due to customs policy
Various Fed representatives have made isolated comments, which have provided some impetus in the meantime. Fed Director Christopher Waller, for example, said that the new customs policy would only have a minor impact on price trends.
Fed minutes warn of inflation risks - US central bank remains convinced that inflation will fall
In the middle of the week, the so-called Fed minutes from the last US Federal Reserve meeting were eagerly awaited.
Shortly after Donald Trump took office, the central bank discussed the risks of inflation in the context of the expected policy shift, according to the minutes of the FOMC meeting. Participants "generally pointed to upside risks to the inflation outlook." However, less reference was made to the risks to the labor market. Discussions included the potential impact of changes to trade and immigration policy.
However, the bottom line is that inflationary pressure will continue to ease.
Purchasing managers on both sides of the Atlantic round off the trading week
The trading week is rounded off by numerous purchasing managers in Germany and the United States.
At 46.1 points, the first estimate of the index for the manufacturing sector in the Federal Republic of Germany was above expectations (45.5 points), (previously: 45 points). The service sector, however, weakened to 52.2 points (expectation: 52.5 points), following 52.5 points in the previous month.
In the afternoon, the focus shifts to the counterparts for the USA (3:45 pm).
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Walmart falls short of expectations - US retail trade fears restraint due to inflation
The US retail giant Walmart fell short of expectations with its annual forecast. Growth of between three and four percent is expected by the end of January 2026, it said. An LSEG survey had previously assumed growth of four percent. Consumers could cap their spending due to inflation. Walmart is also seen as a benchmark for the industry
Walmart Chart
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