As expected, investors on both sides of the Atlantic took a more relaxed approach to the last few days of the year, especially as there was no trading anyway due to the numerous public holidays. Many investors are also likely to stay away from trading between the years.
Nevertheless, market participants can look back on an extremely successful year on the stock markets overall. However, uncertainty about future interest rate prospects and the upcoming Trump policy is likely to carry over into the new year.
DAX Chart
Source: TradingView
New orders for durable goods in the USA rise less strongly than expected
In a generally very manageable economic data calendar, new orders for durable goods in the US were published on Monday, which fell by -1.10% compared to the previous month (-0.40%), more than expected, after a rise of 0.20% in November.
These economic data are important because they are generally associated with major investments and can therefore provide an indication of activity in the US economy.
There was only partial trading in the USA on Christmas Eve due to the holiday. The stock exchange doors remained closed on Wednesday. In Frankfurt am Main, there was no trading on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday due to Christmas.
Development of the US labor market likely to remain an issue - Fewer applications for unemployment benefits than expected
Weekly initial claims for US unemployment benefits came in below expectations at 219,000 units on Thursday (219,000), after a total of 220,000 claims the week before.
No significant data from the corporate sector or the economy is expected today, Friday.
German economy looks to 2025 with great concern
The German economy is looking to the coming year with great concern. The background to this is the weakening economy. 31 out of 49 business associations assess the current situation as even worse than a year ago. The associations remain predominantly pessimistic for 2025, they say.
Hopes for further interest rate cuts by ECB and Fed - focus on Trump's inauguration
Investors are also likely to continue to rack their brains over the interest rate outlook in 2025, after the major central banks, the Fed and the ECB, heralded the interest rate turnaround in 2024.
In the US, the Fed held out the prospect of a more cautious pace of interest rate cuts overall at its most recent central bank meeting shortly before Christmas. Interest rate cuts of only 50 basis points are now expected, compared to one percent in previous projections.
Investors are also eagerly awaiting the official start of the US presidential campaign. Donald Trump's on January 20, 2025. Even though the President-elect has already announced some of his plans, such as tax cuts or the introduction of tariffs, the question remains as to which plans the Republican will actually put into practice. Last but not least, investors are likely to fear his political unpredictability, as was the case in his previous term of office.
Investors are likely to continue to avoid major risks between the years.
