The past few days have been characterized in particular by the expectation of US inflation data and the associated interest rate cut fantasies among investors. The Fed minutes published in the middle of the week also provided important impetus. As the week draws to a close, attention is likely to turn to the start of the US reporting season.
DAX Chart
Source: Tradingview
EU retail trade with positive impetus - German industry records sharpest decline since January
New retail figures for the eurozone provided some positive impetus at the start of the week. Retailers in the eurozone achieved 0.2% more sales last month than in August, which was also expected in advance.
German industry, meanwhile, suffered a setback. After two consecutive increases, orders fell by 5.8% in August (year-on-year), the sharpest decline since January.
Fed minutes and US inflation data weigh on rate cut fantasies
The Fed minutes of the last central bank meeting published on Wednesday evening revealed that the US monetary authorities did not commit to a faster pace of easing in their latest XL interest rate turnaround. Even though an overwhelming majority voted in favor of a 50 basis point rate cut around three weeks ago, this is no guarantee of further rate cuts, they said. Fed Director Michelle Bowman, for example, had voted in favor of a quarter of a percentage point cut in the key interest rate, which in her opinion would have been a better prelude to an easing of monetary policy.
As expected, the US inflation data in particular attracted a great deal of attention on Thursday, although the bottom line was that it only produced mixed signals.
Consumer prices, including the drivers energy and food, were 2.4% (compared to the same month last year) and thus below the previous month's figure (2.5%). However, the forecasts made in advance were not met (2.3%). At the same time, the core rate of inflation, which the US Federal Reserve considers to be decisive for its assessment of inflation, rose (3.2% vs. 3.3%).
Weekly initial claims for US unemployment benefits surprisingly high
The weekly initial claims for US unemployment benefits also caused further confusion on Thursday afternoon. A total of 258,000 Americans applied for state aid last week, significantly more than expected (230,000), after a total of 225,000 the week before.
Overall, investors were also confronted with numerous speeches by various Fed representatives this week. Raphael Bostic from the Atlanta Fed, for example, said on Thursday that he would feel "perfectly comfortable" skipping a rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting. In his opinion, the volatility of past inflation and employment data could justify this scenario, he said.
US producer prices could send new inflation signals - major US banks in focus
Important impulses are expected today, Friday, with the publication of US producer prices (14:30), which are published just one day after consumer prices and could therefore provide further important inflation signals.
Meanwhile, investors should keep an eye on the start of the US reporting season. In addition to JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and the Bank of New York Mellon, BlackRock's figures are expected.
