As expected, new US price data provided ample momentum towards the middle of the week. With high expectations, investors are now likely to look forward to the publication of the „Non-Farm Payrolls“. However, the development of bond markets across the Atlantic and beyond could continue to cause headaches. The oil price and bond yields are currently the two levers that the stock market is watching with keen interest.
DAX
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
JOLTs and ADP data provide first taste of NFPs
On Tuesday, the so-called „JOLTs“ (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) provided a first preview of today’s US labor market data. The number of open positions in the past month was 7.08 million, which was below expectations (7.23 million).
ADP employment data in September stood at 90,000 units (expected: 70,000), after 36,000 in August. These data measure employment in the private sector in the United States.
German inflation rate reaches 3.0 percent for the first time since 2023
As one of the key events of the week, inflation data here in Germany already took place on Wednesday. According to preliminary figures, price pressure in September (compared to the same month last year) was once again above the 3.0 percent mark for the first time since 2023, with the main reason for the jump being price increases in gasoline and diesel.
Core rate for personal consumption spending in the US lower than expected – concerns about interest rate hikes lose some momentum
The core rate for personal consumption expenditures in the USA was 0.2 percent (compared to the previous month), lower than economists feared in the run-up (0.3 percent). In this context, inflationary concerns and thus the monetary policy risks may have lost some momentum.
According to the „Fed-Watch Tool“ of the CME Group, 74 percent of market participants currently expect a pause in interest rates at the meeting on October 28, and 26 percent expect an increase in interest rates, totaling a quarter of a percentage point. A week ago, 64.2 percent had still expected an increase in interest rates of this magnitude.
The ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index for the manufacturing sector fell slightly below expectations (54.6 units in the previous month) to 54.5 points.
EU inflation in September at 3.8 percent – US job data casts a shadow
According to preliminary estimates, EU inflation in September (compared to the same month of the previous year) was 3.8 percent, significantly higher than expected (3.6 percent), after 3.2 percent in August. In this context, inflationary concerns here in Germany are likely to continue to gain momentum.
Today, the official US labor market data (Non-Farm Payrolls) is in focus, which investors should scrutinize for monetary policy clues (14:30). According to current estimates, economists expect an increase in employment outside the US agricultural sector of 90,000 units, after 162,000 new jobs were created in August.
The unemployment rate could be estimated at 4.1 percent, unchanged from the previous month.
Oil price (West Texas Intermediate)
