Investors here at home could be hungry for the next record high on the last trading day of the week and month. A flood of predominantly positive quarterly figures is currently providing tailwind and is at least temporarily overshadowing geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. The earnings season could show the markets a new navigation route and return the compass that investors thought was lost. At the same time, the Iran conflict remains a factor of uncertainty that could cause increased nervousness at any time. Accordingly, the tightrope walk between profit optimism and risk awareness is likely to continue to shape trading. The path upwards towards record heights is likely to remain narrow. Mid-week, it was particularly the eagerly awaited US Federal Reserve meeting that occupied investors.
DAX
ifo Index Rises for the Third Time in a Row – US Durable Goods Orders Below Expectations
The ifo Index, which is also considered the most important German economic barometer, climbed to 86.6 points in July, the third time in a row, as the Munich-based ifo Institute announced at the beginning of the week. The institute surveys around 9,000 managers monthly. Economists surveyed by Reuters in advance had expected 86.0 points. In June, the index stood at 85.7 points.
US durable goods orders rose 0.3 percent from the previous month, after experts had anticipated a 2.5 percent increase. In the preceding comparable month, however, orders had fallen by 4 percent.
Midweek, the US central bank, the Federal Reserve (Fed), kept the key interest rate unchanged within a range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent, as expected. However, three members of the Federal Open Market Committee had argued for a quarter-percentage-point rate hike.
German Economy Defies Geopolitical Risks in Iran – Growth of 0.3 Percent in Spring
The German economy grew in the spring despite risks from the Iran war, as latest data revealed on Thursday. In the period from April to June, gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.2 percent compared to the previous quarter, marking the third consecutive quarter of growth. A growth of 0.3 percent was achieved in the last quarter of 2025, and an increase of 0.4 percent in the first three months of 2026.
Personal income and consumer spending in the US are not rising as much as expected.
Private incomes in the U.S. rose less sharply in June (compared to the previous month) at 0.2 percent than expected (0.3 percent), the Commerce Department in Washington announced on Thursday. Personal consumption expenditures climbed 0.3 percent in the same period, also not as strong as anticipated (0.4 percent). The so-called PCE index increased by 3.7 percent on an annual basis (previously 4.1 percent). This index is considered the preferred price measure for the U.S. Federal Reserve, among other things.
Last but not least, preliminary inflation data for the European Union will also be in focus today on Friday (11:00 AM).
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