Share indices on both sides of the Atlantic continued to be dominated by geopolitical uncertainties in the fourth trading week following the outbreak of the Iran conflict. However, the latest extension of the ultimatum by Donald Trump did not provide any relief. There is growing skepticism on the markets that a quick solution is in sight. The renewed extension of the deadline looks less like diplomatic progress and more like a sign that a viable agreement is still a long way off.
As long as there are no clear signs of easing, the headlines are likely to continue to decide the weal and woe on the stock markets in the new trading week.
In a comparatively manageable trading week from the point of view of the economic calendar, however, there were repeated impulses in the meantime.
DAX
Investors caught between cautious hope for diplomatic progress and the latent danger of further escalation
The Iran conflict continues to keep the stock markets firmly in its grip. Investors are currently caught between cautious hope for diplomatic progress and the latent danger of further escalation. The current tense situation is likely to continue to demand a lot from investors. US President Donald Trump has extended his recent 48-hour ultimatum to Iran by a further five days to 10 days. He will initially refrain from bombing Iranian power plants until April 6, Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.
The oil price acts as a key risk barometer for the financial markets. Rising prices fuel fears of inflation, while at the same time dampening growth prospects and thus acting as a double headwind for share prices.
Purchasing managers are mixed on both sides of the Atlantic
On Tuesday, the purchasing managers in Germany (HCOB) for the manufacturing, service and overall sectors all showed better growth than initially expected. The counterparts for the eurozone, however, were disappointing in the service and total sectors.
While the manufacturing sector in the USA (S&P Global) performed better than expected, the service sector suffered losses.
Ifo index falls to lowest level since February 2025 - GfK consumer confidence weaker than expected
The mood in the boardrooms of German companies is depressed due to the war in Iran. The ifo Business Climate Index was published on Wednesday and fell to its lowest level since February 2025. However, at 86.4 points in March, the economic barometer was able to exceed expectations of 86.1 units, after 88.4 points in the previous month.
The GfK consumer climate was published on Thursday, which was weaker than expected at minus 28 points (-26.5 points). The previous month's figure had been minus 24.8 points.
The reason for the decline is probably not least inflation concerns due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Oil price (West Texas Intermediate)
