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DAX weekly outlook: Further recovery conceivable - anticipation of quarterly figures

A busy trading floor with people working at computer stations and large electronic stock exchange boards displaying data overhead, including the latest figures for the DAX weekly outlook.

Encouraging balance sheets have revived the buying mood on stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic in the first half of the week. As in the USA, the focus in Germany was on companies' quarterly reports. In this context, the geopolitical and monetary policy risks that have dominated recently are receding. As a result, the DAX also managed to climb back above the psychologically important 18,000-point mark. New US price data in particular is likely to attract interest on Friday.

DAX 40 Chart 

Source: Tradingview

Geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain simmering

Despite the recovery, however, investors should not lose sight of the geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East. Following a military strike last Friday, there has been no counter-attack by Iran to date. The most recent attack was attributed to Israel, it was said.

The existing interest rate concerns could also catch up with investors sooner or later. It is still unclear whether and when the hoped-for interest rate cuts will take place in the USA. At the beginning of the year, the Fed held out the prospect of three interest rate cuts. The US Federal Reserve will meet next week on Wednesday to decide on future monetary policy.

Ifo index better than expected - focus on US data

The ifo business climate index, which was only published this morning, is also likely to have provided a boost, with 89.4 points exceeding expectations in April (88.9 points). "The economy is stabilizing, especially thanks to service providers," said the ifo Institute in Munich. Around 9,000 companies are surveyed every month. The business climate improved in all economic sectors.

In the afternoon, investors are likely to look at the development of durable goods in the United States (14:30). A month-on-month increase of 2.5 percent is expected after 1.3 percent in February. Investments in this area are usually associated with higher spending.

On Thursday, the focus will initially be on GfK consumer confidence (08:00). A slight improvement is expected for May compared to the previous month (-27.4 points vs. -25.9 points).

"PCE deflator" should provide important monetary policy signals

The German stock market is also likely to eagerly await new figures on the "PCE deflator" for personal consumption expenditure on Friday (14:30). The US price data is regarded as an important indication of future inflation trends. Economists expect the core rate to increase by 2.6% compared to 2.8% in February last year.

Finally, an overview of consumer sentiment is provided by the Michigan Consumer Confidence (16:00). According to estimates, sentiment may have deteriorated by 1.6 points to 77.8 units.

Reporting season picks up speed - US tech giants in focus

SAP was already able to record a jump in sales in the first half of the week thanks to a flourishing cloud business. However, restructuring costs and job cuts led to red figures in the first quarter, although this was expected in advance.

The figures for e-car manufacturer Tesla showed a decline in sales for the first time in years. This was due to falling demand for e-cars and increasing competition.

Today, Wednesday, the focus will be on Meta's figures, among others. On Thursday, DAX members Symrise, BASF, Merck and Deutsche Bank will present their figures. In the USA, Alphabet and Intel will present their results. Porsche AG will be in the spotlight on Friday.

Timo Emden in a dark suit and tie poses in front of a plain gray background and looks neutrally into the camera.
Timo Emden

Timo Emden holds a B.A. in Business Administration, is a market analyst and a certified blockchain expert from the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. He has been following the global financial markets for over 14 years, with a focus on crypto assets. His assessments are based on chart technology and sentiment - he nevertheless considers important fundamental events to be significant. As a market expert, Mr. Emden is a valued contact for TV, press and radio.

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