Worried about further rising interest rates both in and beyond the Atlantic, the DAX struggles on Thursday to reach the psychologically important 25,000-point mark. Investors continue to balance high energy prices, concerns about inflation and uncertainties in monetary policy. September has lived up to its reputation as a difficult stock market month. Now the focus should shift to the end of the year. Although the overall sentiment remains positive, the decisive spark is currently missing in the markets. Investors are constantly reminded of premature optimism when looking at the oil and bond markets. Now investors should turn their attention to the upcoming publication of new U.S. job data.
DAX chart on a monthly basis
Yields on 10-year US government bonds reach highest level since early 2002
The yield on 10-year US government bonds reached its highest level in 24 years on Thursday. At the time, it stood at 5.342 percent, higher than the last time it reached this level in 2007 and simultaneously the highest level since early 2002. In particular, investors’ concerns about inflation and interest rates are likely to be reflected here.
US government bonds (10 years)
Looking at ISM Purchasing Managers (manufacturing sector) and NFP figures
This afternoon, the ISM Purchasing Managers for the U.S. manufacturing sector will be waiting for the markets (16:00).
On Friday, investors’ focus is now on the official US labor market data (Non-Farm Payrolls), which must be taken into account following monetary policy announcements (14:30). According to current estimates, economists expect an increase in employment of 90,000 units outside the agricultural sector, after 162,000 new jobs were created in August.
The separately calculated unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1 percent.
A first taste of the upcoming NFPs was already provided on Tuesday by the „JOLTs“ job openings (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey). With 7.079 million units, these were significantly below expectations (7.24 million), after 7.335 million in the previous month.
ADP employment data also rose more strongly in September than expected. Compared to the previous month, the number of jobs in the US private sector increased by 90,000, as the service provider ADP reported. Previously, only 75,000 new jobs were expected.
Oil price (West Texas Intermediate)
