The oil price remains at the center of investors„ concerns. The hope for a diplomatic solution in the Iran conflict has once again been dampened. On Saturday, US President Donald Trump rejected a proposal from the Iranian side to reopen the Strait of Hormus. At the same time, however, the US president expects further negotiations with Iran. “They want to reach an agreement, but it’s not the agreement I want to reach,„ the news portal “Axios„ quotes the US president as saying. According to “Axios”, Trump expects new talks next week.
Oil price (West Texas Intermediate)
Important price data and labor market data for the USA in focus
Of interest on Wednesday are the US price data (the price index for personal consumption expenditures), which serve as a preferred measure of inflation for the US Federal Reserve (Fed). In this context, investors are therefore likely to await monetary policy impulses as well.
According to the CME Group’s „Fed Watch Tool,“ 68.1 percent of market participants currently expect another interest rate hike at the meeting on October 28, and 31.9 percent expect a pause in interest rates. The interest rate band itself currently stands at 3.75 to 4.00 percent.
Over the coming weeks, market participants are likely to focus in particular on the publication of new US labor market data (Non-Farm Payrolls) on the upcoming Friday (14:30), which serves as the final report before the next US Federal Reserve meeting. Economists expect a total of 84,000 new jobs to be created outside the US agricultural sector, after 162,000 new jobs were created in August. The separately calculated unemployment rate is expected to stand at 4.1 percent, unchanged compared to the previous month.
A strong US jobs report could give the US central bank a potentially powerful argument to continue to tighten the interest rate levers.
