Eight days before the US presidential election, tension on the global financial markets is likely to continue to rise. As long as the uncertainty surrounding the future formation of a government in the United States remains, investors may tend to avoid all the big risks. Important stimuli await in the new trading week with key US price data, the non-farm payrolls and the reporting season.
Trump still ahead of Harris according to Prediclt - JOLTS and ADP data in focus in the first half of the week
At 62 cents, Republican and former US President Donald Trump is ahead of Democrat and Vice President Kamala Harris (42 cents), according to the analysis portal Predictlt. Overall, however, it has been a neck-and-neck race for months.
In the first half of the week on Tuesday, the so-called JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) could attract interest (15:00). The data is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which records job openings on the market.
The ADP data usually provides an appetizer for the NFPs on Wednesday, two days before the official US labour market report is published (13:15). In this case, a job increase of 110,000 units is expected, after 143,000 units in the previous month.
US GDP and Chinese economic data likely to be moving
The US gross domestic product (annualized) at 13:30 is also likely to provide important impetus. Economists expect a growth rate of 3.0% for the third quarter (compared to the previous quarter).
China data on the widely watched NBS PMI index for the manufacturing sector awaits investors in the night from Wednesday to Thursday (02:30).
The counterpart (Caixin) for the manufacturing sector is published around 24 hours later (02:45).
PCE data could signal upward pressure on prices - NFPs as weekly highlight
Important inflation data could initiate movement potential on Thursday (13:30). The so-called PCE price index for personal consumption expenditure is likely to have risen by 0.20% compared to the previous month, twice as much as before. This data is also seen as an important guide to future inflation trends.
US consumer prices, including the drivers energy and food, were 2.4% in September (compared to the same month last year).
The US labor market data in particular could decide the weal and woe of the stock market week (13:30). Non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 140,000 units, following 254,000 new jobs in September. According to estimates, the unemployment rate is likely to remain unchanged at 4.10 percent.
New ISM manufacturing data is also expected to provide important impetus (15:00).
All US data could increase or reduce the chances of interest rate cuts in the US. The Fed is scheduled to meet again this year on November 7 and December 18 to decide on future monetary policy.
More than a third of S&P companies present figures
The reporting season, which continues to gather pace, should also provide important impetus. Over a third of the companies in the S&P 500 will present their results for the past quarter in the coming days, such as Alphabet (Tuesday), Meta, Microsoft (both Wednesday), Amazon and Apple on Thursday.
