In the new trading week and thus at the start of the last month of 2024, investors' attention is likely to focus in particular on the publication of US labor market data. Following the US election, monetary policy decisions could also come to the fore again.
Impetus could also come from latecomers in the reporting season.
China data likely to provide important guidance - ISM index for the USA in focus
The Caixin PMI index for the manufacturing sector in China could provide important data at the start of the week (02:45).
The ISM index (manufacturing industry) is on the agenda for the United States at 16:00 and is likely to be closely watched.
The so-called "JOLTS" (Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey) will come into focus on Tuesday (16:00), which show the vacancies in the US labor market that are unfilled on the last working day of the month.
ADP data give a first taste of "NFPs" in the middle of the week
In the middle of the week, two days before the official US labor market report is published, the ADP employment data is usually on the agenda (14:15), which provides a first taste of the non-farm payrolls (NFPs). Experts expect an increase in jobs of 165,000 units, after 233,000 jobs in the previous month.
The ISM services index will be in focus on Wednesday at 16:00. A speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at 7:45 pm in the evening will be monitored for monetary policy clues.
There tends to be less relevant economic data on the agenda on Thursday. Nevertheless, initial claims for US unemployment benefits could provide important impetus (14:30).
Economists expect significant job growth after slump in October - latecomers report quarterly results
The publication of the NFP is likely to be the highlight of the week. After an increase in jobs of just 12,000 units in October, economists now expect an increase of 183,000 units outside of the agricultural sector. Hurricane Milton hit the labor market in parts of the US in October. Strike action in the ranks of aircraft manufacturer Boeing is also likely to have contributed to the signs of weakness.
The unemployment rate could remain unchanged from the previous month at 4.10%. A look at the development of average hourly wages should also be rewarding. An increase of 0.30% is expected compared to the previous month (previously: 0.40%).
Weak signals from the labor market could tend to fuel investors' rate cut fantasies. On December 18, the US Federal Reserve will meet for the last time this year to decide on monetary policy. Market participants are currently betting on a further interest rate cut of a quarter of a percentage point.
Consumer confidence from Reuters/Uni Michigan rounds off the trading week (16:00).
Even though the reporting season is now largely over, the quarterly figures from Zscaler on Monday, Salesforce on Tuesday, GameStop and Synopsys on Wednesday and HP and DocuSign on Thursday, for example, could be moving.
