The past trading week was characterized in particular by the fear of the announcement of new US punitive tariffs. Late on Wednesday evening, the US President announced auto tariffs of 25%. From an economic calendar perspective, investors will be looking ahead to new US price data on Friday afternoon in particular.
DAX
Source: TradingView
Trump announces punitive tariffs of 25 percent on imported cars
Donald Trump has ordered special tariffs of 25 percent on car imports into the USA, which are to come into force on April 2. Car parts are also to be affected at the same time, according to reports. The US President has repeatedly threatened punitive tariffs on cars in the past. Currently, imported cars are subject to a tariff of 2.5 percent. Investors are now likely to fear corresponding countermeasures from the EU Commission, which could further accelerate the escalation spiral.
Purchasing managers on both sides of the Atlantic with mixed signals
At the start of the week, the purchasing managers' indices (S&P Global) for the manufacturing sector signaled a slight upturn, although at 48.30 points it is still below the growth threshold of 50 points. However, the services sector and the overall index fell slightly, although both can still remain above 50 points.
While a similar picture emerges in the eurozone, the US counterpart was able to make significant gains in the services sector, but suffered losses in the manufacturing sector.
Ifo index shows strength - hopes for improvement
However, the ifo business climate index was as high as expected at 86.7 points, following 85.4 points in the previous month. "The German economy is hoping for improvement," said the institute. Last but not least, the financial package recently adopted by the German government is likely to be seen as a glimmer of hope.
Monetary policy stimulus from various Fed representatives
At the same time, various Fed central bankers have repeatedly expressed their views. Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago-based central bank, told the Financial Times in an interview published on Wednesday that he expected interest rates to be "significantly lower" in the next twelve to 18 months. "In my view, when there's dust in the air and you're dealing with uncertainty, the right approach is to wait and see," Goolsbee told the Financial Times on Tuesday.
US GDP growth rate better than expected - GfK consumption barometer shows manageable growth
However, there was a small ray of hope on Thursday with the published GDP growth rate for the US, which increased by 2.4% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter, slightly more than expected (2.3%). Jerome Powell had recently spoken of a strong economy overall, but had forecast economic growth of just 1.7 percent for the current year, compared with 2.1 percent in December.
Contrary to higher expectations, the GfK consumer barometer improved by 0.1 points to minus 21.3 points this Friday morning. The recent announcement of rising government debt as a result of the fiscal package and US tariff policy is likely to be behind the uncertainty.
US price data rounds off the trading week - hopes for interest rate cut signals
This Friday, attention will finally turn to the so-called "PCE deflator" for personal consumption expenditure (13:30). Investors are expecting important inflation signals in this context and thus possibly monetary policy stimuli.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Source: TradingView
