The last few trading days have been characterized in particular by the economic stimulus package announced by the People's Bank of China (PBoC). Following the recent interest rate turnaround in the US, investors are hoping for a stabilization of the economy and a turnaround in the battered real estate sector in China, which is obviously benefiting the stock markets in both Germany and the US. Finally, this afternoon, attention will turn to the publication of new US price data.
DAX Chart
Source: Tradingview
The prospect of aid measures by the People's Bank of China causes a stir worldwide
A programme presented by the Chinese central bank to stabilize the Chinese real estate sector has made market participants around the world prick up their ears. According to the head of the central bank, Pan Gongsheng, the minimum reserve rate for banks is to be reduced by 0.5 percentage points, for example. The seven-day repo rate is also to be lowered by 0.2 percentage points to 1.5 percent.
The measures are expected to revive the economy and put an end to the real estate crisis.
Purchasing managers in Germany weak - mixed results on the US side
At the beginning of the week, purchasing managers in Germany all signaled a downward trend. The indices for the manufacturing industry and the overall index are still below the growth threshold of 50 units.
In the USA, the overall picture was mixed. While the service sector continues to gain momentum, the picture for the manufacturing sector is less positive.
Ifo index falls for the fourth time in a row - outlook remains gloomy
On Tuesday, it was the widely observed ifo business climate index, which fell for the fourth time in a row to 85.4 points in September after 86.6 points in August. According to the Munich-based institute, companies were less satisfied with current business in particular. Meanwhile, the outlook for the coming months clouded over.
Initial claims surprisingly down - US data provide positive impetus
After Wednesday turned out to be less interesting from the perspective of the economic data calendar, attention turned all the more to Thursday.
The weekly initial claims for US unemployment benefits are likely to have provided a positive surprise. At 219,000, these were well below expectations (225,000). The threshold of 270,000 applications, which would herald a negative trend reversal, is seen as critical.
Incoming orders for durable goods also developed better than expected, which is likely to have contributed to the positive sentiment.
Investors hope for a further decline on the inflation front
One of the week's highlights is likely to be the publication of the so-called "PCE deflator" for personal consumption (2:30 pm). According to current estimates, experts expect an increase of 2.3% compared to the same month last year, after 2.5% in the previous month. A decline could tend to curb inflationary concerns and thus further fuel interest rate cut fantasies in the USA. Investors are still hoping for interest rate cuts this year. Just last week, on Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 50 basis points for the first time since March 2020, thus initiating the long-awaited turnaround in interest rates.
