The geopolitical conflict between Iran and Israel has increasingly preoccupied investors in recent days. As expected, the ceasefire between the two countries announced by Donald Trump has brought great relief. Speculation about the successor to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the associated hope of a looser US monetary policy in the future caused a stir, particularly on Thursday. As the week draws to a close, attention is likely to turn to the publication of important US price data.
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Ceasefire between Iran and Israel gives a boost and brings back risk appetite
The ceasefire in the Middle East conflict announced by Donald Trump has caused a sigh of relief around the globe. However, shortly after the ceasefire between Iran and Israel began, both sides accused each other of new attacks, whereupon the US President called for compliance. Investors welcomed the ceasefire in the conflict and the accompanying signs of détente. According to Trump, there will be new talks with Iran in the coming week.
Speculation about possible Powell successor is moving - investors are likely to hope for interest rate cuts
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's contract ends in May 2026. According to the Wall Street Journal, the US president has been toying with the idea of naming and announcing Powell's successor in September or October. The WSJ itself refers to insiders who do not wish to be named.
Trump had strongly criticized Jerome Powell in the past and called for interest rate cuts. Last week, the Fed once again left the key interest rate unchanged. The interest rate band has been quoted at 4.25 to 4.50 percent since December.
Ifo index rises to highest level since May 2024 - sixth increase in a row
One of the highlights of the week was the publication of the ifo business climate index on Tuesday, which climbed to its highest level for over a year. The business climate rose by 0.9 points to 88.4 points in June. Overall, the economic barometer rose for the sixth month in a row. The Munich-based institute surveys around 9,000 companies every month.
GfK consumer climate declines slightly after three increases - US GDP shrinks more than expected
The GfK consumer climate in Germany has fallen again slightly after three increases in a row. However, consumers are more optimistic about the economic situation than they were before the start of the war in Ukraine. The GfK Institute expects the consumer climate to fall slightly by 0.3 points to -20.3 points in July.
The US economy declined more sharply in the first three months of the year than previously expected. In the first quarter of 2025, gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.5% on an annualized basis, according to the US Department of Commerce. At the end of May, a year-on-year decline of 0.2% was still expected. In the fourth quarter of 2024, GDP had still stood at 2.4%.
US price data rounds off the trading week - important inflation signals conceivable
This Friday, investors will be looking ahead to the publication of important US price data. The so-called core rate of personal consumption expenditures (price index) is expected at 14:30.
The final consumer sentiment data (University of Michigan) for the US should also be observed (16:00).
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Source: TradingView
